Golden Cross Backtest: 4309% on Ethereum, but Look Closer
We tested the golden cross, the 50 and 200 candle average crossover, on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana across daily and four hour candles, with fees and slippage included. It beat buy and hold in four of six runs and cut drawdowns in all six, but daily results were weak and the newest 30 percent of data was mixed. The heatmap shows every nearby setting stayed positive, though the results were far from smooth. An honest look at what the most famous trend signal really delivers.
Method: signal at candle close, trade at next candle open, long only, no leverage. Costs: fee 0.10% + slippage 0.05% per side. Data: Bitget spot candles.
This is a backtest on historical data, not financial advice.